Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won his fourth election last night in surprising fashion. He outdistanced the polls, including the exit polls in the waning hours of voting and won a decisive victory over the Zionist Union and Isaac Herzog. Here are some quick and initial takeaways from the results.
A huge victory for the Right
Even though the right wing/religious bloc in the Knesset didn’t grow, the right gained considerable power relative to
the last Knesset. The last government included two centrist parties, Yesh Atid, and Hatnuah. Yesh Atid actually was the biggest single party in it, with Likud having joined with Avigdor Lieberman’s party to gain a decisive lead in the 2013 elections. Hatnuah, though small, was very important to the coalition, as its head, Tzipi Livni was the fig leaf over the right wing that negotiated with the Palestinians.
This coalition is going to have a very different character. It is quite possible that Netanyahu will get the fully right-wing coalition he wants. It is very possible that the most moderate party in it will be Moshe Kahlon’s center-right Kulanu party. Kahlon is at best lukewarm on the two-state solution, although he has been critical of Netanyahu’s refusal to maintain negotiations. He probably described his view best when he said he supported Netanyahu’s 2009 Bar-Ilan speech. That’s the one Bibi just repudiated in the last days of the campaign. Read more at the FMEP blog.
In the wake of the election, I was part of a panel on France 24 on Wednesday, discussing the elections and their meaning. Along with me were Michael Cohen of the Century Foundation and representatives of both the Labor and Likud parties. Check it out. Part one is here. Part two, here.
It’s been about six hours since the polls closed in Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has scored a dramatic victory, far outpacing the pre-election and exit polls. The consequences for Israelis, Palestinians, and the rest of the world could be very grave.
This surprising result undoubtedly came about because of some combination of the pollsters simply being wrong and Netanyahu’s last minute tactics, which included some blatant racism as well as an appeal to voters to block the possibility of a government led by the Zionist Union. But the why is less important than the results. Read more at LobeLog.
New York Magazine’s Q&A with me yesterday:
Tomorrow, Israelis will go to the polls and decide whether they want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies to continue to run the Knesset, or whether they would like Isaac Herzog and the Zionist Union to change things up. The race looks impossibly close, and because this is a parliamentary election and there’s no chance that either of the possible prime ministers can form a government alone, there are a host of smaller parties that hold the government’s future in their grasp. Daily Intel talked to Mitchell Plitnick, program director at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, who explained some of the most important variables to keep an eye on tomorrow — and what potential electoral outcomes could mean for Israel’s relationship with the United States, peace talks with Palestinians, and nuclear talks with Iran. Read More at New York Magazine.
Friends, I have the lead story in today’s edition of The New Republic, an analysis of the Israeli election scheduled for tomorrow, mostly focusing on how badly Netanyahu has screwed up this campaign. I’d appreciate it if my readers would check it out and help us all give Marty Peretz indigestion over it being in his former magazine. Read it here.
Many people in the United States are keeping a close eye on the Israeli elections, due to take place on March 17. The latest, and last, poll by the Knesset Channel in Israel came out yesterday, and it may open a lot of eyes.
The poll shows the Zionist Camp coalition—Isaac Herzog’s Labor Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah— garnering 24 seats, while Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party come in second at 21. The report inHa’aretz analyzes those numbers even further to show that 56 elected Knesset members would likely recommend Herzog to form the next government, while Netanyahu would have the backing of 55. Read more at LobeLog
I placed a short op-ed in the Daily News today. The headline is not surprisingly misleading, and the News is not exactly a highly professional outlet. But it has a pretty good readership, and, in New York, it gets more of a cross-section than the Times and the Post. Check it out.